Denmark has a long-term goal to be independent of fossil fuels by 2050. This has consequences for our transport sector, which is primarily based on oil. At the same time, society is completely reliant on an efficient network for goods and personal transport.
2050 may seem in the distant future, but a conversion in the transport sector cannot be done from one day to the next. It is therefore important to have milestones along the way, thus avoiding a situation where development quickly has to be accelerated, and thereby risking higher costs.
Denmark is also committed to the goals established by the EU, including the decision that the non-ETS sector shall reduce its CO2 emissions by 30% in 2030. The largest portion of the emissions in this sector comes from transport and agriculture. Each EU member will receive a binding target for reductions in the non-ETS sector. The specific objectives will not be known until 2016, but Denmark is expected to receive a binding target involving emission reductions of 35%-40% compared to 2005.
The aim of the “Green Roadmap 2030” is to present ideas on how road transport can contribute its proportionate share of the expected Danish reduction commitment in 2030, i.e., at least 35%.
Green Roadmap 2030 presents a concrete mix of technologies (electric vehicles, plug- in hybrids, biofuel blending, gas, etc.) and means that can be employed, taking into account the technologies’ maturity, development potential, and societal costs. The study comprises a main scenario (35% CO2 reduction), three technology scenarios that build further on this 35% scenario towards a CO2 40% reduction, and a reference scenario.
The scenarios are based on an accelerated phasing in of electric vehicles for passenger transport, increased blending percentages in biofuels for all vehicles, and the introduction of biogas (primarily for heavy transport), relative to a situation without new national initiatives. The roadmap presents the socioeconomic costs of the different scenarios.